Is This The End of Sky High Inflation?



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SOURCES:
I’ve linked my sources in the blog that goes along with this video. Links are in the text.
https://www.moneymacro.rocks/2023-10-01-inflation-end/

Timestamps:

0:00 — introduction
1:26 — inflation spike drivers
10:45 — sponsor
12:06 — inflation fall drivers
13:36 — the future

Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort
Thumbnail by Tom Hurling https://studiotomkin.com/

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  1. Ráâfét Zrïbì

    Make us a video about a third world unpopular country, Tunisia as an exemple, it will be completely impossible not to mention the geopolitical circumstances alongside the bad Political decisions.

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  2. Surgeon

    Its a start of deflation. Don't be happy tho, its way worse. In US since 2022 industry deflation was at 9%, it is VERY BAD

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  3. Matthew

    For as long as the federal reserve exists, there will be inflation.

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  4. Poor Noodle

    Conclusion: raising interest rates in the EU was a mistake, has little to no impact on inflation and only makes us poorer.

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  5. cr4yv3n

    once inflation has increased prices they will NEVER GO DOWN despite inflation dropping.
    This is how they FUCK US.

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  6. alethia

    really depends on what you count as inflation. is it price, or is it payment flows sensitive to interest rate.

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  7. john smith

    These are nice charts,however, I lived through this. The food prices and inflation were all here for a year before Putin started war. It's not Putin's price hike. Think people, think.

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  8. Mea

    0:08: 📈 Inflation in the United States, the U.K., and Euro Area surged during the pandemic but is now seemingly falling.

    3:38: 💬 Inflation is falling and unemployment is low, contradicting predictions of hyperinflation and high unemployment.

    7:42: 📊 The video discusses the drivers of inflation in Europe and the role of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    10:14: 💰 The video discusses the role of government support and stimulus in inflation, as well as the potential end of supply problems and the rise of demand-led inflation.

    13:42: ✅ The great inflation surge is unlikely to happen again due to various factors.

    Recap by Tammy AI

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  9. Sachin Anshuman

    Fantastic subtle take on economics explained 0))))

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  10. jpablo

    Not a word about corporate greed and record profits.

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  11. Marc

    One thing I am wondering: If supermarkets or food suppliers increase their prices simply to make more money, and cover it up saying that there is inflation going on, wouldn't this be counted to the supply kind of inflation and skew the results? Because then it would be a direct follow up from the alread existing inflation, which could be caused e.g. by goveenment stimulus, etc.

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  12. Angel Marin

    Msy i suggest taking a look at the Iberian exception and how it cut energy inflaction by solving the problem of the marginalist electric market?

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  13. Mensur Hamzic

    Fantastic work! Thank you!

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  14. Jintaro Kensei

    Oh inflation is coming back up and this time it ain't stopping

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  15. Wouter Hendrickx

    Im sure these categories of inflation also impact each other. Just something that wasnt mentioned.

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  16. Clyde

    Abolish the evil central banks.
    Usury is Evil

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  17. Clyde

    Inflation is is that about 50 to 75%

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  18. Clyde

    Abolish the Federal reserve act of 1913, and watch inflation go away

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  19. Rob Notwicz

    The central bank rate hikes have been more psychological than tangible to this point — creating the belief and the potential real threat of worse financing to bring down irrational sentiment that might otherwise fuel shorter-term price spiking and panic.

    This also explains why bond yield curves are so strange right now — the market is split between those who see this as being a real permanent rate increase and those who see it as being a mind game, and so there's significant belief that the rates will be brought down in the future simply as an end to this "game" rather than as a result of worse future performance needing stimulus.

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  20. LiveForeverYoung

    If the effects of higher interest rates has yet to affect us. Something is going to break again in the economy

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  21. Joaco Adachi

    Hi Joeri,

    could you make a video about Argentina's current situation, and particularly in what Javier Milei stands for in this current presidential election? I think it would be very interesting.

    Thank you!

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  22. Davide Tartaglia

    Thank you for your analysis. I'm a bit suspicious of the narrative that blames government stimuli since it often comes from radical right-wing ideological positions. Interesting to see that in the end in Europe most of the inflation comes from the supply chain disruption

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  23. Mitchell Couchman

    Inflation is dropping because people are bracing for a recession as they have seen their spending power collapse…

    Talk to anyone that's not an academic and you'll see people a momentarily suffering whether you choose to call it a recession or not. The average buying power on housing food and energy has collapsed.

    Its not "transitory" vs "permanent", the shear level of inflation has outstripped wages making the average consumer poorer. Whether wages will ever catch back up idk but I'm not holding my breath

    I understand the abstractions and their uses but taking a step closer can sometimes give you a better idea, people are getting poor so they spend less so demand drops.

    You say as a result of the invasion, more accurately should be Europe's reaction to the invasion, this was all those wonderful sanctions to destroy Russia…

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  24. Louis Binns

    Finally some decent methodology to separate the covid savings effect and raw materials supply shock effect in the public domain! Doing the Lords Work as usual Sir.

    I suppose the next stage of the debate is going to be at what point interest rates will come down again, and what effect the rises will have had by that point.

    On one hand, employment numbers are robust, and firm costs should fall as the supply side effects melt away, so the more stagnant advanced economies may see a return to growth.

    On the other hand, the effect of interest rate rises on savings levels are probably not quite the same as usual due to problems surrounding housing supply shortages in the rental market, and indebtedness on the part of homeowners. Because of time lags we probably won't know about a potential negative demand shock for another 4-6 months.

    The lack of investment from firms as rates rise is also pretty worrying in terms of overcoming more medium-long term supply constraints

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  25. Klakkalakka

    I have another question. How do they take into account that there might be future supply problems that follow from the increased interest rate and therefore more expensive investments that expand supply or make it more efficient.

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  26. SetTheCurve

    Inflation lately has become high because of the supply of money, which isn’t going away any time soon.

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  27. Yumuura

    inflation isnt dropping, its going higher. bunch of bs

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  28. Alex R

    Danke!

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  29. MADUMARU

    Here in Indonesia
    Inflation cause is Goverment Change the Export import policy

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  30. Nikhil Pujari

    Wow. For most part of the previous decade all we heard was secular deflation and the Japanification of pretty much all the world. What a bewildering change in circumstances.

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  31. Daniel Fairclough

    High inflation be issue right now.inflation risk

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  32. sosiski

    You are talking about the special operation like they stared it and that Russians are the reason for it. You should change the video completely and your mind. We are the one not keeping the promises. We are the ones with sanctions, we are the ones that want to put NATO there, so we are the reason , not Russias special operation… Maybe your mind is washed by the Dutchmedia which has derailed from what we people think in Europe 😂

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  33. Gav Jam

    This is excellent and just shows that it's very easy to dismiss the actions of a central bank but when you look into it they acted in the best way possible at the time. Well, the ECB did, maybe Fed should have turned off the money printers a lot sooner but easy to say with hindsight

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  34. Jia Li

    The U.S. Is in Stagflation.

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  35. Money & Macro

    The first 100 people to use code MONEYMACRO at the link below will get 60% off of Incogni: https://incogni.com/moneymacro

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